In a year defined by political shocks and digital speculation, the 2024 U.S. presidential race unfolded at the pace of the markets. What began as a traditional campaign quickly turned into a live drama, with prediction markets capturing every twist in real time.

The journey started in January 2023 (1), when President Biden's re-election announcement sent Democratic odds soaring from 50 percent to 74 percent overnight. But the euphoria was short-lived. Just two weeks later (2), mounting concerns about Biden's age triggered a sharp correction, plunging Democratic chances to 51 percent.

By mid-2023 (3), as Trump faced escalating legal troubles, markets swung back toward Democrats, climbing to 67 percent. The race seemed destined to favor the incumbent—until summer 2024 rewrote the script entirely.

On July 14 (4), an assassination attempt at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania shocked the nation and sent Republican odds rocketing from 62 percent to 74 percent in minutes. Sympathy and renewed momentum converged, cementing Trump's position as the frontrunner.

Five days later (5), the contest shifted again: Biden withdrew and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Markets recalibrated instantly, lifting Democratic odds from a dire 29 percent to 37 percent as traders bet on Harris energizing the base.

Through autumn, Republican confidence hardened. Then, in the final weekend before Election Day (6), a surprise Iowa poll showing Harris ahead sparked a last-minute Democratic surge—from 36 percent to 42 percent— injecting drama into what had seemed inevitable.

Finally, on Election Night (7), as results poured in from key swing states, Republican odds crossed 95 percent by 11:43 p.m. ET and briefly touched 99 percent after midnight. By dawn, the digital markets had already declared what the country would soon confirm: Donald Trump had reclaimed the presidency in one of the most turbulent and closely watched elections in modern U.S. history.