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POLITICS

Presidential Election Winner 2024SETTLED

The 2024 Presidential Race Through 22 Months of Political Turbulence
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Volume:$8.83M
Tracked:1436 Days
Current:Republican
Key Events
Wed, Jan 11 20239:00 AM ET

Biden Candidacy Announcement

Biden formally announces 2024 re-election bid; markets surge on Democratic confidence as party unity rallies behind incumbent.

Democratic:50%74%(+24%)
Wed, Jan 25 20232:15 PM ET

Age Concerns Emerge

Reports surface questioning Biden's fitness for second term; Democratic odds plummet as markets factor in electability doubts.

Democratic:74%51%(-23%)
Mon, Jun 26 202311:30 AM ET

Trump Legal Troubles Escalate

Federal indictment proceedings intensify; Democratic odds climb as markets price in potential Trump legal jeopardy affecting campaign.

Democratic:56%67%(+11%)
Sun, Jul 14 20246:14 PM ET

Assassination Attempt on Trump

Shooting at Pennsylvania rally shocks nation; Republican odds spike instantly as sympathy wave and renewed momentum converge.

Republican:62%74%(+12%)
Fri, Jul 19 20243:05 PM ET

Biden Exits, Harris Endorsed

President Biden withdraws and endorses VP Kamala Harris; Democratic odds rebound as markets recalibrate to new Harris-Trump matchup.

Democratic:29%37%(+8%)
Sat, Nov 2 20247:45 PM ET

Iowa Poll Surprise

Unexpected Iowa poll shows Harris ahead; Democratic odds surge in final weekend as markets factor in potential Midwest swing.

Democratic:36%42%(+6%)
Tue, Nov 5 202411:43 PM ET

Election Night Surge

Swing-state results roll in favoring Trump; Republican odds break past 95% and briefly touch 99% after midnight as victory becomes certain.

Republican:57%99.75%(+42.75%)