The ongoing government shutdown in the United States concluded on November 13, with the relevant Polymarket resolving to 100%. With over $30 million in total volume, this market was a closely watched indicator of sentiment around the protracted legislative gridlock in Washington.

Despite the shutdown ending on November 13th, earlier predictions had pointed to a much longer impasse. The market's ability to rapidly adjust its forecasts highlights the power of these decentralized prediction platforms to quickly incorporate new information and evolve their views.

The government shutdown first began on October 1st, as Congress failed to reach an agreement on funding measures. Initial predictions on Polymarket had the shutdown lasting well into November, with the odds of it ending by October 31st hovering around 20%.

However, as the stalemate dragged on, market participants began to reassess the situation. By mid-October, the probability of the shutdown ending by November 13th had risen to 50%, indicating growing optimism that a resolution was in sight. This shift likely reflected behind-the-scenes negotiations and emerging signs of compromise between the two parties.