Congress fails to pass a continuing resolution. Markets immediately assess the political trench warfare ahead. Within 48 hours, Polymarket shows a 70% chance the shutdown would last past October 15, as the two sides hardened around healthcare subsidies and budget cuts.

Repeated Senate votes fail, with only two Democrats joining Republicans on reopening bills. The market reacts instantly — the probability of the shutdown stretching into late October and early November jumps into the 30–40% range. Polymarket volume surges past $450,000.

Historic milestone triggers repricing of late-November outcomes. Newsweek reports Polymarket giving a 38% chance the shutdown would last until November 16, up from just 10% a week earlier. Kalshi markets show 70% odds it would last at least 35 days — making it the longest shutdown in U.S. history.

Polymarket bets for a November 13th end to the shutdown resolved to 100% as the historic U.S government shutdown ends. Interestingly, Polymarket traders had been expecting a November 12th end to the shutdown, but that date came and went and the shutdown officially ended a day later on the 13th.