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WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2026 · 02:37 AM
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Fed decision in December?SETTLED

Fed cuts rates by 25bps as expected by Polymarket
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Volume:$393.91M
Tracked:140 Days
Current:25 bps decrease (100.0%)
Key Events
DEC 10 2025 • 9:30 AM ET

Fed cuts rates by 25bps

As Polymarket predicted in advance, the Fed delivered a 25bps rate cut. All eyes now look ahead to 2026 and the trajectory of interest rates.

25bps decrease:96%→100%(+4%)
NOV 25 2025 • 8:30 AM ET

Soft data boosts rate cut hopes

A raft of soft economic data and concerns around the labor market and growth saw the odds of a 25bps cut soar higher.

25 bps decrease :67%→82%(+15%)
NOV 21 2025 • 07:30 AM ET

Market sudden shift, 25 bps decrease

Market quickly reacted bringing 25 bps decrease from 34-54% in 14 minutes. No legacy media reported.

25 bps decrease:34%→54%(+20%)
NOV 20 2025 • 8:00 AM ET

Fed Governor Hints Rate Pause Ahead

Traders reportedly reacted to comments from Fed Governor [name] suggesting the central bank may hold off on further rate hikes in December, citing signs of moderating inflation.

No change:46%→67%(+21%)
NOV 14 2025 • 8:00 AM ET

Wall Street Journal Forecasts Fed Dovishness

A Wall Street Journal analysis suggested the Fed will likely keep rates steady in December, as officials aim to assess the impact of past hikes before resuming their tightening campaign, sources indicate.

No change:33%→45%(+12%)
OCT 30 2025 • 8:00 AM ET

Stronger-Than-Expected Inflation Data

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October, beating economists' forecasts and raising doubts about the Fed's ability to quickly tame inflation.

No change:12%→30%(+18%)