Markets as the Source of Truth

SUNDAY, JANUARY 11, 2026
BETA - PUBLIC MOCKUP
PRICE: FREE
FINANCE

Fed decision in December?SETTLED

Fed cuts rates by 25bps as expected by Polymarket
Article

Rates Cut as Expected: Fed Holds Course in December

The Federal Reserve has delivered on market expectations, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as predicted by the Polymarket prediction market. With Polymarket traders forecasting this outcome, the consensus around the Fed's December decision was correct.

This Polymarket market has been closely watched by investors and analysts seeking insights into the central bank's policy moves. By allowing traders to wager on the likelihood of various Fed decisions, the platform has provided a real-time barometer of market sentiment leading up to each policy announcement.

This consensus has held steady even as the Fed grappled with a range of economic factors, including moderating inflation, a resilient labor market, and global trade tensions. Traders appear to have consistently viewed a quarter-point reduction as the most likely course of action for policymakers.

Implications of the Predicted Outcome

The Polymarket market's unwavering prediction of a 25-basis-point cut suggests that investors are largely satisfied with the Fed's gradual approach to monetary policy normalization. This measured pace of rate adjustments has been widely interpreted as a prudent strategy, aimed at sustaining economic growth without significantly disrupting financial markets.

The fact that the actual decision aligns with the market's expectations may indicate that the Fed has effectively communicated its intentions, reducing the potential for surprises that could roil asset prices. Traders appear to have a clear understanding of the central bank's policy framework and the factors guiding its decision-making.

What's Next for the Fed and Investors?

With the December decision now in the rearview mirror, attention will shift to the Fed's next moves and how they may impact the broader economic landscape. Investors will be closely monitoring the central bank's forward guidance, looking for clues about the potential trajectory of future rate adjustments.

The Polymarket platform will undoubtedly continue to be a valuable resource for gauging market sentiment and anticipating the Fed's next steps. As the economic outlook evolves, traders will likely adjust their bets accordingly, providing a real-time barometer of the market's expectations.

Ultimately, the Polymarket prediction market's accurate forecasting of the Fed's December decision underscores the power of crowdsourced intelligence in navigating the complex world of monetary policy. As investors and analysts continue to monitor these markets, they may gain valuable insights that can inform their investment strategies and economic outlooks.

Key Events
DEC 10 20259:30 AM ET

Fed cuts rates by 25bps

As Polymarket predicted in advance, the Fed delivered a 25bps rate cut. All eyes now look ahead to 2026 and the trajectory of interest rates.

25bps decrease:96%100%(+4%)
NOV 25 20258:30 AM ET

Soft data boosts rate cut hopes

A raft of soft economic data and concerns around the labor market and growth saw the odds of a 25bps cut soar higher.

25 bps decrease :67%82%(+15%)
NOV 21 202507:30 AM ET

Market sudden shift, 25 bps decrease

Market quickly reacted bringing 25 bps decrease from 34-54% in 14 minutes. No legacy media reported.

25 bps decrease:34%54%(+20%)
NOV 20 20258:00 AM ET

Fed Governor Hints Rate Pause Ahead

Traders reportedly reacted to comments from Fed Governor [name] suggesting the central bank may hold off on further rate hikes in December, citing sig...

No change:46%67%(+21%)
NOV 14 20258:00 AM ET

Wall Street Journal Forecasts Fed Dovishness

A Wall Street Journal analysis suggested the Fed will likely keep rates steady in December, as officials aim to assess the impact of past hikes before...

No change:33%45%(+12%)
OCT 30 20258:00 AM ET

Stronger-Than-Expected Inflation Data

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October, beating economists' forecasts and raising doubts about ...

No change:12%30%(+18%)